Kalshi's $5,499 Question: Wash Trading, Or A Subsidized Volume Machine?
Kalshi's Ethereum perpetual futures contract has a favorite trade size, and it's $5,499.
A CoinDesk analysis published Monday pulled 3,450 trades in the contract, a futures product with no expiry that tracks the spot price of ether, from 23 one-hour windows between September 17 and 20. Of those, 1,406 landed within $2 of $5,499. That's $7.7 million of the $13.5 million sampled, or 57% of the dollar volume. Bitcoin perpetuals showed the same thing with different numbers: trades near $2,500 and $5,000 made up 54% of the $8.5 million sampled. Going back to June 19, CoinDesk found a recurring size on 43 of 46 sampled days, with the magic number migrating from $4,999 to $9,999 to $3,999, $4,499 and $5,499.
The fight started when Beni, a pseudonymous quant and co-founder of Stealth Neolab, posted that Kalshi's ether perp was printing $539 million of 24-hour volume against $3.1 million of open interest, a ratio of 174 to one, and called the repeating $5,500 prints "undeniable proof" of wash trading. He also waved around an Artemis chart of prediction-market share, which is a ...
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