Why Constant Talk Of TACO Is Likely Wrong, With Both Sides Escalating
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The only way out of this crisis is through
We warned 2026 would tell 2025, which revolved around tariffs, ‘Hold my beer’: yesterday, the US launched two new Section 301 trade investigations, and it hardly registered in the headlines even if it could lead to higher, court-immune US tariffs this summer vs China, the EU, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Singapore, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Switzerland, and Norway.
The focus is instead on Iran and Hormuz, as Brent oil tests towards $100 a barrel this morning. As also warned, things are going to escalate before any de-escalation on those fronts. Ignore that “There's "practically nothing left" to target in Iran”; balance news that US intelligence says Iran’s government is not at risk of collapse with reports suggesting potential cracks forming in it; and above all heed our underlying geopolitical logic, echoed in the Wall Street Journal, that ‘Ending Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the US and Allies’ because “Leaving the regime undefeated could motivate Tehran to develop nuclear weapons and ...
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