TACO Vs TAW: Fade This (Equity) Rally
Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,
Ceasefire?
The U.S., via Pakistan, and apparently consistent with negotiations being carried out by Witkoff and Kushner, has delivered a 15 point agreement for a ceasefire.
Markets responded with oil down (Brent futures, at 5:30 am are back down below $100, from a high of $105 on Tuesday).
Stock futures and treasuries are rebounding as well (even the 2-year, after the drubbing it took after yesterday’s auction noticeable for an absence of “direct” bids).
Many of the Polymarket Strait of Hormuz “prediction” markets have barely moved in response to the ceasefire proposal announcement, fwiw.
What to do?
We Have Already Had Regime Change
I think the most important thing said yesterday, was that the President, for the first time, made the case that the regime is so different (due to so many senior leaders being killed), there has been a regime change.
We have argued, since day 1, that true regime change, without boots on the ground, etc., is difficult to achieve. Finding a powerful enough faction who wants to protect their own lives and those of their family, willing to make a deal to achieve ...
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